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Beyond Fubar forecasts (MiningNewsPremium.net)

- By: John P Sykes
Posted in: Blog, Commodities, Mineral Economics, Mining, Publications, Recommended, Strategy

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To begin the new year, Allan Trench and I have published an article in his Strictly Boardroom column entitled "Beyond Fubar forecasts" resolving to  improve mining industry forecasting techniques. The article looks at some common flaws with forecasts using Donald Rumsfeld's admittedly hackneyed 'known unknowns' and 'unknown unknowns' metaphor, before detailing six New Years resolutions to improve industry forecasting: 1)…
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A tour of 2016-2020 mineral commodity markets

- By: John P Sykes
Posted in: Blog, Commodities, Conferences, Mineral Economics, Publications, Recommended

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A few months ago my PhD supervisor, Allan Trench, presented a paper co-authored with myself and a colleague at CRU Group, Paul Robinson, to the AusIMM New Zealand Branch Annual Conference. Allan's presentation focused on CRU commodity price forecasts, however, the paper we submitted alongside also looked at some of the problems of commodity price forecasting and ways it can be…
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