Commodity Price Barometer: March 2013
- By: Natalie Staffurth
Posted in: Blog, Commodities
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An update to the monthly Greenfields Research Commodity Price Barometer, which ranks commodity prices on a barometer style rating of stormy (low) through rain, change (medium) and fair to dry (high) comparing current spot prices to five year prevailing averages. Commodities are further divided into those rising and falling from their current positions. This month’s results show continued dry weather for palladium and but more storms for the cheaper end of the rare earth elements sector, as well as bad weather gallium and molybdenum markets.
Silver and gold remain at recent historical highs but continue to fall in price, along with tin and tantalum which have dropped from the ‘dry and rising’ range, leaving only palladium and iron ore (which is new to this level this month) in the top category. However, tungsten and lead show promise in the ‘fair and rising’ group and copper, indium, platinum and zinc make up the ‘change but rising’ group. Bismuth and nickel are ‘rainy but rising’ and cobalt and rhodium are the ‘stormy’ commodities that continue to rise a little.
The rare earths have all seen no change over the last month (due to the Chinese new year) so remain in the ‘falling’ categories related to previous months of decreasing prices. Europium, in the fair value range, looks most promising of these, with dysprosium, praseodymium and terbium in the ‘change’ category and gadolinium and neodymium in the ‘rain’ category. Yttrium, lanthanum, cerium and samarium show continued poor performance and are joined in the ‘stormy and falling’ class by molybdenum and gallium.
There are more commodities in ‘falling’ categories than ‘rising’ although if we ignore the rare earths the opposite trend is observed, with the only previously unmentioned falling commodities being antimony in the ‘fair but falling’ range and uranium in the ‘rainy and falling’ range.
As ever if you feel there are any interesting “mineable” commodities missing from the barometer, please let us know and we’ll see if they can be added.
Dry (and rising) +25% above 5 year average with month-on-month increase
- Iron Ore
- Palladium
Dry (but falling) +25% above 5 year average with month-on-month decrease
- Tantalum
- Silver
Fair (and rising) +10% above 5 year average with month-on-month increase
- Lead
- Tungsten
Fair (but falling) +10% above 5 year average with month-on-month decrease
- Antimony
- Gold
- Tin
- Europium
Change (and rising) between -10% to +10% of the 5yr average with month-on-month increase
- Copper
- Indium
- Platinum
- Zinc
Change (and falling) between -10% to +10% of the 5yr average with month-on-month decrease
- Dysprosium
- Praseodymium
- Terbium
Rainy (but rising) -10% below 5 year average with month-on-month increase
- Bismuth
- Nickel
Rainy (and falling) -10% below 5 year average with month-on-month decrease
- Uranium
- Gadolinium
- Neodymium
Stormy (but rising) -25% below 5 year average with month-on-month increase
- Cobalt
- Rhodium
Stormy (and falling) -25% below 5 year average with month-on-month decrease
- Molybdenum
- Gallium
- Cerium
- Lanthanum
- Samarium
- Yttrium
Technical notes
Prices are January monthly averages compared to the five year average (February 2008-January 2013), except for uranium and iron ore where December 2012 monthly average prices are compared to the five year average (January 2008-December 2012).
All commodity prices are from our friends at Metal Pages, except gold and silver which come from the London Bullion Market Association; and iron ore and uranium, which come from Index Mundi.
Product specifications are Antimony Regulus min 99.65% Grade II (EU); Bismuth min 99.99% (EU); Cobalt min 99.3% Russian (EU); LME Cash Copper; Gallium 99.99% CIF Main Airport (EU); LMBA Gold morning fixing; Indium min 99.99% (EU); China import Iron Ore Fines 62% FE spot (CFR Tianjin port); LME Cash Lead; Molybdenum Roasted Concentrates (Oxide) Mo 57% (EU) Mo; LME Cash Lead; Platinum 99.95% AM/PM fixes (EU); Palladium 99.95% AM/PM fixes (EU); Rhodium min 99.9% (EU); LMBA Silver Fixing; Tantalite basis 30% Ta2O5 (EU) Ta2O5; LME Cash Tin; Tungsten APT (EU); Index Mundi UxC Uranium U3O8 Swap Futures End of Day Settlement Price; LME cash zinc; Ce Oxide 99% min FOB China (CN); Dy Oxide 99% min FOB China (CN); Eu Oxide 99.9% min FOB China (CN); Gd Oxide 99% min FOB China (CN); La Oxide 99% min FOB China (CN); Nd Oxide 99% min FOB China (CN); Pr Oxide 99% min FOB China (CN); Sm Oxide 99% min FOB China (CN); Tb Oxide 99% min FOB China (CN); and Y Oxide 99.999% min FOB China (CN).