Commodity Price Barometer: June 2013
- By: Natalie Staffurth
Posted in: Blog, Commodities
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The Greenfields Research Commodity Price Barometer shows a gloomy view of commodities this month, with more commodity prices in the “rainy” and “stormy” categories than in the “dry” and “fair” ones. Furthermore, a large majority of the commodities dipped in price again during May, suggesting the bad weather will continue into the near future. Just palladium and tantalum remain at recent historical highs, with tungsten also continuing its rise. At the other end of the barometer, cobalt, gallium, molybdenum, rhodium and most of the rare earths remain in stormy markets.
The Greenfields Research Commodity Price Barometer ranks commodity prices on a barometer style rating of stormy (low) through rain, change (medium) and fair to dry (high) comparing current spot prices to five-year prevailing averages. Again, like a barometer, commodity prices are further divided into those rising and falling from their previous month’s position.
Palladium is the rare ray of sunshine this month, being the only commodity in the “dry and rising” category, though tungsten in the “fair and rising” group also shows promise. Tantalum also remains “dry” but has dipped in price since last month.
Gold and tin have fallen from “fair” to “changeable” conditions, and are joined by antimony, bismuth, indium, iron ore, lead, platinum, silver, zinc and copper. All have fallen in price except the latter, with a small increase in copper indicating that prices may be stabilising. If the rare earths (which generally perform in a similar manner) are disregarded, the “changeable” commodities make up the largest group by far in this month’s barometer.
Nickel, uranium and praseodymium are “rainy and falling”, and gadolinium is also included in this group although it has not in fact fallen in price since the end of 2012. The remaining eight rare earths are now all in the “stormy and falling” category, along with molybdenum and rhodium. Cobalt and gallium are the “stormy but rising” commodities.
As ever if you feel there are any interesting “mineable” commodities missing from the barometer, please let us know and we’ll see if they can be added.
Dry (and rising) +25% above 5 year average with month-on-month increase
- Palladium
Dry (but falling) +25% above 5 year average with month-on-month decrease
- Tantalum
Fair (and rising) +10% above 5 year average with month-on-month increase
- Tungsten
Fair (but falling) +10% above 5 year average with month-on-month decrease
- None
Changeable (but rising) between -10% to +10% of the 5yr average with month-on-month increase
- Copper
Changeable (and falling) between -10% to +10% of the 5yr average with month-on-month decrease
- Antimony
- Bismuth
- Gold
- Indium
- Iron Ore
- Lead
- Platinum
- Silver
- Tin
- Zinc
Rainy (but rising) -10% below 5 year average with month-on-month increase
- None
Rainy (and falling) -10% below 5 year average with month-on-month decrease
- Nickel
- Uranium
- Gadolinium (no change)
- Praseodymium
Stormy (but rising) -25% below 5 year average with month-on-month increase
- Cobalt
- Gallium
Stormy (and falling) -25% below 5 year average with month-on-month decrease
- Molybdenum
- Rhodium
- Cerium
- Dysprosium
- Europium
- Lanthanum
- Neodymium
- Samarium
- Terbium
- Yttrium
Technical notes
Prices are May monthly averages compared to the five-year average (June 2008-May 2013), except for uranium and iron ore where April 2013 monthly average prices are compared to the five-year average (May 2008-April 2013).
All commodity prices are from our friends at Metal Pages, except gold and silver which come from the London Bullion Market Association; and iron ore and uranium, which come from Index Mundi.
Product specifications are Antimony Regulus min 99.65% Grade II (EU); Bismuth min 99.99% (EU); Cobalt min 99.3% Russian (EU); LME Cash Copper; Gallium 99.99% CIF Main Airport (EU); LMBA Gold morning fixing; Indium min 99.99% (EU); China import Iron Ore Fines 62% FE spot (CFR Tianjin port); LME Cash Lead; Molybdenum Roasted Concentrates (Oxide) Mo 57% (EU) Mo; LME Cash Lead; Platinum 99.95% AM/PM fixes (EU); Palladium 99.95% AM/PM fixes (EU); Rhodium min 99.9% (EU); LMBA Silver Fixing; Tantalite basis 30% Ta2O5 (EU) Ta2O5; LME Cash Tin; Tungsten APT (EU); Index Mundi UxC Uranium U3O8 Swap Futures End of Day Settlement Price; LME cash zinc; Ce Oxide 99% min FOB China (CN); Dy Oxide 99% min FOB China (CN); Eu Oxide 99.9% min FOB China (CN); Gd Oxide 99% min FOB China (CN); La Oxide 99% min FOB China (CN); Nd Oxide 99% min FOB China (CN); Pr Oxide 99% min FOB China (CN); Sm Oxide 99% min FOB China (CN); Tb Oxide 99% min FOB China (CN); and Y Oxide 99.999% min FOB China (CN).