Commodity Price Barometer: July 2013
- By: Natalie Staffurth
Posted in: Blog, Commodities
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The Greenfields Research Commodity Price Barometer continues to show a dim view of commodities this month, with 22 of the 30 commodities covered having fallen in price. Only three commodities remain in the “dry” and “fair” categories; these are tantalum, tungsten and palladium. At the other end of the barometer, gallium, molybdenum, nickel and rhodium remain in stormy markets with most of the rare earths.
The Greenfields Research Commodity Price Barometer ranks commodity prices on a barometer style rating of stormy (low) through rain, change (medium) and fair to dry (high) comparing current spot prices to five-year prevailing averages. Again, like a barometer, commodity prices are further divided into those rising and falling from their previous month’s position.
Tantalum remains at a recent historical high but has seen a fall in price over the month, and palladium has fallen from the “dry” to the “fair” group. Conversely tungsten, last month a “fair and rising” commodity, has risen into the “dry and rising” category.
Iron ore has fallen from “fair to “changeable” conditions and is joined in the “changeable and falling” class by antimony, copper, gold and tin. Indium, lead and zinc are the “changeable and rising” commodities along with praseodymium, which is the only rare earth to have risen in price in June.
Bismuth, platinum, silver, uranium and dysprosium are “rainy and falling”, and gadolinium is also included in this group although it has actually stayed at a constant price since the beginning of the year. The remaining seven rare earths are all in the “stormy and falling” category, along with molybdenum, nickel and rhodium. Cobalt has been picking up and has made the transition from “stormy but rising” to “rainy but rising” and gallium is the lone “stormy but rising” commodity which may be brightening up.
As ever if you feel there are any interesting “mineable” commodities missing from the barometer, please let us know and we’ll see if they can be added.
Dry (and rising) +25% above 5 year average with month-on-month increase
- Tungsten
Dry (but falling) +25% above 5 year average with month-on-month decrease
- Tantalum
Fair (and rising) +10% above 5 year average with month-on-month increase
- None
Fair (but falling) +10% above 5 year average with month-on-month decrease
- Palladium
Changeable (but rising) between -10% to +10% of the 5yr average with month-on-month increase
- Indium
- Lead
- Zinc
- Praseodymium
Changeable (and falling) between -10% to +10% of the 5yr average with month-on-month decrease
- Antimony
- Copper
- Gold
- Iron Ore
- Tin
Rainy (but rising) -10% below 5 year average with month-on-month increase
- Cobalt
Rainy (and falling) -10% below 5 year average with month-on-month decrease
- Bismuth
- Platinum
- Silver
- Uranium
- Dysprosium
- Gadolinium (constant)
Stormy (but rising) -25% below 5 year average with month-on-month increase
- Gallium
Stormy (and falling) -25% below 5 year average with month-on-month decrease
- Molybdenum
- Nickel
- Rhodium
- Cerium
- Europium
- Lanthanum
- Neodymium
- Samarium
- Terbium
- Yttrium
Technical notes
Prices are June monthly averages compared to the five-year average (July 2008-June 2013), except for uranium and iron ore where May 2013 monthly average prices are compared to the five-year average (June 2008-May 2013).
All commodity prices are from our friends at Metal Pages, except gold and silver which come from the London Bullion Market Association; and iron ore and uranium, which come from Index Mundi.
Product specifications are Antimony Regulus min 99.65% Grade II (EU); Bismuth min 99.99% (EU); Cobalt min 99.3% Russian (EU); LME Cash Copper; Gallium 99.99% CIF Main Airport (EU); LMBA Gold morning fixing; Indium min 99.99% (EU); China import Iron Ore Fines 62% FE spot (CFR Tianjin port); LME Cash Lead; Molybdenum Roasted Concentrates (Oxide) Mo 57% (EU) Mo; LME Cash Lead; Platinum 99.95% AM/PM fixes (EU); Palladium 99.95% AM/PM fixes (EU); Rhodium min 99.9% (EU); LMBA Silver Fixing; Tantalite basis 30% Ta2O5 (EU) Ta2O5; LME Cash Tin; Tungsten APT (EU); Index Mundi UxC Uranium U3O8 Swap Futures End of Day Settlement Price; LME cash zinc; Ce Oxide 99% min FOB China (CN); Dy Oxide 99% min FOB China (CN); Eu Oxide 99.9% min FOB China (CN); Gd Oxide 99% min FOB China (CN); La Oxide 99% min FOB China (CN); Nd Oxide 99% min FOB China (CN); Pr Oxide 99% min FOB China (CN); Sm Oxide 99% min FOB China (CN); Tb Oxide 99% min FOB China (CN); and Y Oxide 99.999% min FOB China (CN).