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Beyond Fubar forecasts (

- By: John P Sykes
Posted in: Blog, Commodities, Mineral Economics, Mining, Publications, Recommended, Strategy


To begin the new year, Allan Trench and I have published an article in his Strictly Boardroom column entitled “Beyond Fubar forecasts” resolving to  improve mining industry forecasting techniques. The article looks at some common flaws with forecasts using Donald Rumsfeld’s admittedly hackneyed ‘known unknowns’ and ‘unknown unknowns’ metaphor, before detailing six New Years resolutions to improve industry forecasting: 1) measure forecasting performance; 2) improve conventional forecasting techniques; 3) mine historical data; 4) analyse underlying drivers in forecasts, especially in big data; 5) adopt subjective techniques such as scenario planning and ‘superforecasting’ as required; and 6) control for biases.

The article is available to subscribers on